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SSRN · Working paper · 20 August 2026

Technical Indicator Combinations and Cross-Market Generalization: Evidence from Indian and U.S. Equities

Krishna Harsha Tangirala · Independent Market Researcher and Trader

Evaluates the entire combinatorial space of one- to four-indicator strategies drawn from a 23-signal technical pool — 21,528 distinct strategies — across Indian and U.S. equity markets over 2009–2026.

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Strategies tested
21,528
Technical indicators
23
Sample period
2009–2026
Pages
68

  • No evidence of benchmark outperformance

    Across all three equity baskets, not a single strategy delivers statistically significant positive excess return when tested against an investable benchmark.

  • Methodological correction matters

    Conventional comparisons are often mis-specified for low-beta long/short portfolios, leading to misleading inferences about “alpha”.

  • Exposure dominates outcomes

    Approximately 76% of return variation is explained by portfolio exposure rather than indicator selection.

  • Cross-market divergence

    In U.S. equities, technical timing is consistently value-destroying under an exposure-matched null. In India, combinations exhibit statistically significant structure, but the effect is economically unexploitable due to turnover (~91× annually) and transaction costs.

  • Inference sensitivity

    Key results are highly dependent on measurement choices — particularly benchmark specification, risk-free rate adjustment, and portfolio aggregation conventions.

Much of the apparent evidence supporting technical analysis may be attributed not to predictive signal, but to evaluation design — specifically, how strategies are benchmarked, aggregated, and tested under multiple hypotheses.